Global retail e-commerce sales are projected to reach $4.4 Trillion in 2023, up from $1.3 Trillion in 2014.
This means that 20% of global retail sales are now online. Forrester forecasts that by 2028, these sales will reach $6.8 Trillion and represent 24% of global retail sales. Physical stores will remain important: $21.9 Trillion of the $28.7 Trillion in global retail sales in 2028 will still occur offline.
Despite massive store closures and social distancing during the pandemic that boosted e-commerce growth, the past few years have seen a reversal with consumers returning to physical stores.
For 2024 and beyond, we anticipate online sales to regain momentum through commercial offerings and generative AI initiatives.
The growth of global e-commerce will be driven by:
New and mature channels:
The rise of online marketplaces, social commerce, online grocery shopping, click-and-collect services, quick commerce, live selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will significantly boost online sales.
E-commerce buyer maturity:
Advanced economies like South Korea, the UK, and the US lead the way with high internet penetration and good digital literacy. Emerging markets are catching up rapidly, driven by widespread smartphone adoption, mobile commerce, and young populations. Marketplaces like Allegro, Flipkart, Lazada, Mercado Libre, and Shopee are expanding access to developing economies.
Innovative payment solutions:
Digital wallets and account-to-account (A2A) transfers are revolutionizing the global e-commerce landscape by enabling smooth, secure, and convenient transactions. Digital wallets allow for quick and secure purchases with integrated loyalty programs, while A2A transfers offer low-cost, fast, and secure direct banking transactions.
Our recently published report, "Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028," provides historical data going back to 2014 and a five-year forecast of total, online, and offline retail sales in local currencies and US dollars for 40 countries representing 88% of global GDP.
